Armypowerinfo

Even with their current border closures, China and North Korea are steadfastly committed to a "blood-alliance." However, the effects of this cooperation vary greatly based on which side of the border is taken into consideration. In many respects, COVID-19 gave Kim Jong-un a handy pretext to seal the borders under the pretext of public health while simultaneously sending a message to Beijing indicating that he refused to accept Chinese assistance, even at the cost of starving his own people. Kim probably wants the border closed in order to reduce Chinese power and influence over internal matters in the North.

Stability in the region has always been China's primary objective with North Korea. From the Chinese point of view, although Kim's nuclear weapons might not be the best thing, if there was a leadership vacuum, things could get worse. Beijing has long prioritized preserving the geopolitical status quo in the region, although its rhetoric suggesting that it would eventually like to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. China continues to show little interest in North Korea's efforts to denuclearize, presumably believing that Pyongyang's nuclear weapons represent little threat to its territory.

Furthermore, Beijing is probably happy that North Korea wishes to expel American forces from the Korean Peninsula. North Korea's nuclear weapons will cast doubt on US extended deterrence for the region once they are coupled with a sizable number of ICBMs over the course of the next few years. The United States' alliances with Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) may be jeopardized by this. China would be in favor of this result since it would reduce American dominance in the area.

These viewpoints are flawed because they downplay the real threat that North Korea's nuclear weapons represent to China. Several million people in Beijing might be killed or gravely injured by a single North Korean nuclear weapon with the yield (explosive power) of the North's sixth nuclear weapon test. Although making up a small portion of the Chinese population, this amount would represent a sizable portion of the country's core leadership, endangering the stability of the government. Furthermore, North Korea may possess as many as forty-five nuclear weapons, according to Dr. Siegfried Hecker, a former Los Alamos director who has made multiple visits to the North Korean nuclear complex at Yongbyon.

China should think about whether they have any cause for fear regarding the geopolitical ramifications of an unchecked North Korean nuclear weapons development in the medium to long term. Beijing's usual long-term strategic thinking is somewhat at odds with its current lack of concern. It is plausible that Beijing's leadership is being blindsided by the growing North Korean danger as a result of China's cold war with the United States...